lake powell water level forecast 2022
Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr@usbr.gov for additional information. But the region is battling a multidecade drought with rain harder to come by. Becky Mitchell is director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the states lead water planning agency. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. The final NOAA forecast for the season predicts the amount of water to reach Lake Powell this year to be about 60% of average. The end of January elevation and storage of Lake Powell were 3,523.45 feet (177 feet from full pool) and 5.45 million acre-feet (maf) (23 percent of live capacity), respectively. Precipitation was better, but still slightly below normal in the Upper Colorado River Basin. More by Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip? Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast Despite those releases, Powell dropped below 3,525 last month, hitting 3,523, another historic drought landmark. The Water Desks mission isto increase the volume, depth and power of journalismconnected to Western water issues. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. The water levels at Lake Powell have dropped around 100 feet in the last three years. Glen Canyon Dam currently maintains 30 mw (approximately 800 cfs) of generation capacity in reserve in order to respond to a system emergency even when generation rates are already high. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. The February forecast for water year 2023 ranges from a minimum probable of 8.37 maf (87 percent of average) to a January forecasted maximum probable of 14.93 maf (155 percent of average) with the most probable forecast for water year 2023 of 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). Because the 2022 operations were designed to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell, Reclamation will implement Lower Elevation Balancing Tier operations in a way that continues to protect these critical elevations, or preserves the benefits of the 2022 operations to protect Lake Powell, in water year 2023. Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window), Wind affected on the west and south facing aspects of the Gore Range seen on, April 7, 2022, near Vail. The DROA coordination will continue until either (i) the minimum probable projected elevation remains above 3,525 feet for 24 months or (ii) the process moves to the next step when the most probable projected elevation indicates Powell elevations below 3,525 feet and a Drought Response Operations Plan is developed. This article contains new, firsthand information uncovered by its reporter(s). Lake Powells water levels plummeted in early 2005, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb :qD_q7wE42TOOSW:Oa^(-]p7y|iZ.8uq:}1y3bJ]!G ) ytRdJp2 +[|}QpEU}V'k{yeKud"xl_-x lJ!UZ`,n!\3{dcb By May 1, the spring-summer runoff outcomes are pretty well locked in, which means theres virtually no escape from a third poor runoff year in a row, Jeff Lukas, an independent water and climate researcher based in Lafayette, said in an email. Boats docked at Lake Powell on July 13 . Encompassing all or parts of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. Level 3 Shortage Condition 1,025 ft and below Elevation 1,090 ft Elevation 1,045 ft Historical Future Were an initiative of theCenter for Environmental Journalismat the University of Colorado Boulder. Updated: 10:18 PM MDT April 26, 2022 DENVER Lake Powell, on the Utah-Arizona state line, is part of a river system that supplies water to 40 million people. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; @) .=] j Bvq2 4=B4[YCO@p/e`5[ #("A3?M|Cd(Jje(B_il:.\7m=.{CZ&&q5O}NOB6jGptUEN1Dh'6dW30oLqmt1W#F/qy<5aJ5 LuQmB(JD'4z`9q#v k[ T Scientists say the current drought is the driest on record in the last twelve hundred years. By Leia Larsen. Melissa joined KNAU's team in 2015 to report on science, health, and the environment. Fresh Water News is an independent, nonpartisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. SW Satellite Weather The Colorado Sun is a journalist-owned, award-winning news outlet based in Denver that strives to cover all of Colorado so that our state our community can better understand itself. The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. Depending on the severity of the system emergency, the response from Glen Canyon Dam can be significant, within the full range of the operating capacity of the power plant for as long as is necessary to maintain balance in the transmission system. Across most of the streams and rivers of the Upper Basin, forecasted runoff ranges from very poor (50% of average) to mediocre (80% of average).. To view the 2023 progession of snowpack above Lake Powell, click on Lake Powell Snow Chart. Prepared by Ashley Nielson NOAA, National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, Utah www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Contents water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. . google_ad_height = 600; It wasnt just the Powell number that dipped, although the amount of runoff that makes its way to Powell each year is considered a good barometer for conditions basinwide. Although developing snowpack in the area is "fairly good" and might stave off dead pool in Lake Powell for another year or so, according to Lund, the solution lies with people conserving water. Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. In addition to daily scheduled fluctuations for power generation, the instantaneous releases from Glen Canyon Dam may also fluctuate to provide 40 megawatts (MW) of system regulation. Up to 80 percent of water use in the basin is for agricultural purposes, but urban water conservation serves an important purpose, too. The Glen Canyon Dam annual release has initially been set to 7.00 maf, and in April 2023 Reclamation will evaluate hydrologic conditions to determine if balancing releases may be appropriate under the conditions established in the 2007 Interim Guidelines; Balancing releases will be limited (with a minimum of 7.00 maf) to protect Lake Powell from declining below elevation 3,525 feet at the end of December 2023; Balancing releases will take into account operational neutrality of the 0.480 maf that was retained in Lake Powell under the. Climate change also plays a part. A visual history of the water level of each of our Lake Powell trips over the past three years. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). View our Current Membership Thank You Gifts, KNAU News Talk - Arizona Public Radio | 2022, a day after Southern California delared a water . From there, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell's main artery. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. However, the Bureau of Reclamation's 24-month forecast that was just released at the end of last week projects Lake Mead to be at 1,041.10 feet in January 2023. The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294, https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196, USGS site #09180500 - Colorado River near Cisco, UT, USGS site #09315000 - Green River at Green River, UT, USGS site #09379500 - San Juan River near Bluff, UT, USGS site #09380000 - Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ, Snowpack Conditions Upper Colorado Region Above Lake Powell, Lake Powell Inflow Forecast April-July Inflow Forecast, Current Water Year Inflow Forecast Monthly Outlooks, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, LTEMP - Long-Term Experimental & Management Plan, Report to Congress - Operations of Glen Canyon Dam - Water Year 2015-2016, National Park Service Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, National Park Service Grand Canyon National Park, U.S. The lake held just 30 percent of its capacity. Committee on the Scientific Bases of Colorado River Basin Water Management, National Research Council. The Bureau of Reclamation announced on May 3, 2022, two separate urgent drought response actions that will help prop up Lake Powell by nearly 1 million acre-feet (maf) of water over the next 12 months (May 2022 through April 2023). Previous forecasts showed this was possible and the Bureau of Reclamation announced on March 4 that a . These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize the electrical generation and transmission system and translate to a range of about 1,300 cfs above or below the hourly scheduled release rate. 0.523 maf in Lake Powell from December 2022 through April 2023. Water Data for 20 days surrounding Feb 28, 2022. Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. The system is appreciated for the water it supplies, but criticized for the environmental problems and cultural losses that have resulted from its creation. Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. "We might get lucky with the weather, but the idea of the system recovering is really hard unless you reduce water use in that basin," Lund told Newsweek. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert, it'll take a long time to restore the levels, too. The probable minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90 percent of the time. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. Upper Colorado River Basin regularly experiences significant year to year hydrologic variability. (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) In July 2021, water levels on the lake fell to the lowest point since 1969 and have continued dropping. Lund said that throughout the reservoir's history, it has refilled to its original levels just once. google_color_url = "426C95"; There is a 10 percent chance that inflows could be higher than the current maximum probable forecast and a 10 percent chance that inflows could be lower than the minimum probable forecast. (2019-2021) AND my own personal prediction of 2022 based on p. We maintain a strict editorial firewall between our funders and our journalism. There is approximately an 80 percent probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. The critical issue is how to maintain the lake at 3,525, which marks an elevation that is the top of the liquid buffer zone designed to protect the lakes mighty electricity turbines. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. Learn more at, Photos: Heron Lake, New Mexico, August 2022, Data viz: Elephant Butte Reservoir levels, to increase the volume, depth and power of journalism, https://www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/, www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/. At the beginning of water year 2023, total system storage in the Colorado River Basin was 19.54 maf (33 percent of 58.48 maf total system capacity). In January, following the wet December Moser noted, the NOAA forecast called for 98% of the 30-year average to reach Powell. In the latter half of the decade, the drought eased somewhat. Graphical view of Lake Powell water data. The unregulated inflow during the 2000-2022 period has ranged from a low of 2.64 maf (28 percent of average) in water year 2002 to a high of 15.97 maf (166 percent of average) in water year 2011. Lake Powell is at low for water year and down 9.26 feet from the high. (For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) Official Glen Canyon National Recreation Area Changing Lake Levels Info. So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". Feet above sea level Change - Feet difference over previous . Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). //2006-10-04: news By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. She grew up in Tucson, Arizona, where she fell in love with the ecology and geology of the Sonoran desert. The forecast is changing daily and there are still a lot of variables, said Lisa Meiman, a spokeswoman for WAPA. Gas Prices on Lake Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 11, 2023 There are currently 1,757,155,460,140 gallons of water in Lake Powell! The May report, released last week, is the final runoff prediction for the season. google_ad_width = 160; It will be among the lowest years of generation ever, said Nick Williams, power manager for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region in an interview last week. These long-term projections help water managers plan for future shortages, which are increasingly likely in the Colorado River Basin, in part because of warmer temperatures brought on by global climate change. To view the most current monthly release projections, click on: Lake Powell Release Projections. This 2022 Plan is described above and available for review here: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. //2006-10-04: news //-->, Printable Version hb```)," In the early years of this image series, water levels began to drop. Last Reading: 3521.11 on Feb 27, 2023 Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 26, 2023 There are currently 1,734,731,016,499 gallons of water in Lake Powell! Wang suggests updating the reference period more frequently or using the last 20 years as the baseline. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powells water levels. GCC is the official nonprofit partner of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area & Rainbow Bridge National Monument. It can store about five times the average annual flow. The most recent data is from Monday, February 27th, 2023. But the declining water already has drained some of the fun, he said. Lake Mead was at elevation 1,064.30 ft. with storage of 8.753 maf or 34 percent of capacity. Cheap sewer pipe repairs can push toxic fumes into homes and schools heres Hard water: In these metro neighborhoods, few drink the tap water. That spring runoff is critical to irrigated agriculture, domestic water supplies, and the recreation industry in Colorado and the West. CNN's Bill Weir has more. Lake Powell was at 26% of capacity, 168 feet below its full elevation of 3,700 feet above sea level at . Human actions created the Salton Sea, Californias largest lake heres Scientists studying water supply focus on weeks following peak snowpack. He also was an associate editor at 5280 and a reporter for the Vail Daily. Much of that water. Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records WEco is funded by multiple donors. The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. The water level in Lake Powell was at a record low when rain and snow began to fall across the Colorado River Basin in October, soaking dry soils ahead of the winter season. KNAUs Melissa Sevigny reports. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. System emergencies occur fairly infrequently and typically require small responses from Glen Canyon Dam. However, these responses can have a noticeable impact on the river downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. Late last fall WAPA, which operates the electric grid and distributes the power to utilities, raised rates 30% to cover reductions in power revenue. About 40 million people rely on the Colorado River for domestic use and farmers and ranchers use water from the river to irrigate more than 3 million acres of farmland. "I would be reluctant to limit it to years just since 2000, because I think there is some value in acknowledging the variability that goes on in our basin," he says. The period 2000-2022 is the lowest 23-year period since the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, with an average unregulated inflow of 8.29 maf, or 93 percent of the 30-year average (1991-2020). 8_9dyB`n`` +30|@,6a # But it is concerning. There are continued discussions when and how that same amount of water (0.523 maf) will be . The sediment-filled Colorado River appeared green-brown. Some Arizona cities have implemented drought management plans to conserve water, but the area continues to use water at a rate that negates Lake Powell's recovery. water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. According to the Bureau of Reclamation's website (on March 22, 2022), Lake For additional information, see the following news release: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196. Water supply forecast volumes decreased across most of the region, Moser said during the webinar. Soil moisture conditions have improved over the last year across most of Colorados Western Slope, but thats not necessarily saying much because of how bad soil moisture conditions were heading into last years snowmelt runoff season, Moser said. 04:12 - Source: CNN 159 0 obj <> endobj The January 2023 24-Month Study probable maximum and the February 2023 24-Month Study probable minimum inflow scenarios were used to determine the range of probable outcomes. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. Consistent with Section 6.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powells operations in water year 2023 are governed by the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (LEBT) with an initial projected water year release volume of 7.00 maf. The actual end of water year 2023 system storage may vary from this projection, primarily due to uncertainty regarding this seasons runoff and reservoir inflow. A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. This level is actually .02 feet . But generally below-normal precipitation the last several months after a very wet December.. a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and KNAU's Melissa Sevigny reports. The probable maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10 percent of the time. Water managers, who . The March 2023 releases are anticipated to fluctuate between a low of 5,276 cfs to a high of 9,641 cfs. The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. At the west end of Narrow Canyon, the Dirty Devil River joins the lake from the north. The bureau, in consultation with tribal nations and the seven Colorado River Basin states, decided to keep nearly 500,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell that had originally been planned to be released to the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California this year. | March 17, 2022, 6:57 a.m. As predicted, southern Utah's Lake Powell has fallen below a critical level that soon could threaten its ability . Lund said he expects water use in the basin to have "capped out," but the reservoir can't continue to supply water at the pace in which the area consumes it. In order to restore Lake Powell's levels, one expert said people must conserve water in the Colorado River's lower basin. Another 480 kaf will be left in Lake Powell by reducing Glen Canyon Dams annual release volume from 7.48 maf to 7.0 maf, as outlined in the 2007 Interim Guidelines that control operations of Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam. As of Wednesday, the water level was 3,524.22 feet. Significant amounts of snowfall over the winter of 20102011 meant more water for Lake Powell, and this effect lasted into the spring of 2012. Snow levels will fall to the lowest locations Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before the storm exits eastern Arizona Thursday afternoon. This was the lowest water levels have been since the lake was first constructed in the 1930s. inflow forecast for water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet from . The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. Fish & Wildlife Service Endangered Species Success Stories. Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. Projections of end of water year 2023 elevation using the February minimum and January maximum inflow forecast results are 3,544.04 feet and 3,582.24 feet, respectively. Lake Powell is currently 390.33 feet deep at the dam. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. The elevations listed in the August 2022 24-Month Study report reflected the projected physical elevations at each reservoir after implementing operations as described for water year 2023 tier determination purposes. Now, though, we know that its not firm, its not reliable, and its coming at a much higher cost.. Reclamation will also ensure all appropriate consultation with Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico, other federal agencies, water users and non-governmental organizations with respect to implementation of these monthly and annual operations. Utahs Flaming Gorge, Colorados Blue Mesa and New Mexicos Navajo. Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. 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